Advanced Fashion – Fashion Forecasting lesson (04/13/2020 – 04/17/2020)

VISUALIZATION –

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A FORECAST

FASHION SCAN –

CONSUMER SCAN –

FASHION ANALYSIS –

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS –

– VISUALIZATION helps forecasters understand and communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions. The 3 most familiar patterns are : FASHION CURVES, THE PENDULUM SWING, AND THE FASHION CYCLE.

* FASHION CURVES: Fashion trends are usually classified by duration and penetration, visualized as curves with time and consumer adoption rates. It shows the difference between the shortest trends called: FADS, and the longest called: CLASSICS.

* PENDULUM SWING: Pendulum swing refers to the periodic movement of fashion between extremes – For example, fluctuations between long and short hemlines, fitted and oversized silhouettes, dress up and casual look etc… These swings may take decades or a fashion season.

* FASHION CYCLES: Cycles have a fixed, regular periodicity. It is usually depicted as a bell shaped curve encompassing 5 stages: 1) Introduction 2) Rise in popularity 3) Peak of popularity 4) Decline in popularity 5) Rejection.

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A FORECAST
Forecasting consists of tools and techniques applied systematically.Just as important are human judgment and interpretation.
Step 1) Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts.
Step 2) Determine the causes of change in the past.
Step 3) Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior.
Step 4) Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
Step 5) Apply forecasting tools and techniques, to issues of accuracy.
Step 6) Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant changes from expectations.
Step 7) Revise the forecast when necessary.

All apparel/clothing companies share the same problem – How to make the right product, introduce it at the right time, distribute it in the right channels, and capture the attention of the right consumers. Forecasting is more than just attending runway shows and picking out potential trends that can be nocked off at lower prices. It is a process that spans shifts in color and styles, changes in lifestyles and buying habits, and different ways of doing business.
By education and training, executives develop a speciality by narrowing their research into an industry segment.

FASHION SCAN
Fashion professionals follow the latest fashion news to sport emerging fashion and lifestyle trends. Scanning for trends includes:
* Traveling to the fashion capitals (New York, Paris, Milan, and London) and other trendsetting spots.
* Scanning print, broadcast, and online sources for ideas.
* Networking with people in creative fields such as the arts, architecture, interior design, cosmetics, and entertainment.

CONSUMER SCAN
Consumer segmentation attempts to identify group of people who share characteristics, usually some combination of demographics, lifestyle, attitudes, and behavior. Consumers who shares characteristics are called COHORTS.
For example the consumer segment of working women can be subdivided by categories such as occupations, age, marital status, number of children, ethnicity, or other characteristics. Working women with many shared characteristics are a cohort who are likely to shop and purchase in similar ways. Consumer research uses various data gathering methods such as focus group, survey, statistics, and observation to understand their preferences and behavior. By linking the sub-segment with price pint, brands, shopping behavior, and style preference, executives can determine which consumers are likely to respond to the company’s product- the TARGET MARKET.

FASHION ANALYSIS
Fashion analysis is the process of putting together the puzzle of what is likely to happen next in the fashion world. Together, the fashion scan and consumer scan provide input for fashion analysis. It is a dialogue between the creative industries such as Fashion, Interior design, the arts, and entertainment; who propose innovations and consumers who decide what to adopt or reject.

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS
The fashion story is part of larger shifts in the culture, including the fragmentation of the marketplace. Fashion forecasting requires a wide scan to encompass cultural, economic, and technology issues that have an impact on consumer preferences and spending.

I want you to do a quick research of fashion forecaster job position to see what you can find. Please send me your finding trough my email: dalged@ivyhawnschool.org

According to your reading, find the answers to these question:

– What are the fashion capital cities?

– What is the definition of COHORT?

– What is the definition of FADS?

– What is the definition of CLASSICS?

Please send me your answer through my email: dalged@ivyhawnschool.org